| Título: | “Google it!” Forecasting the US Unemployment Rate with a Google Job Search index |
| Autores: |
D’Amuri, Francesco Marcucci, Juri |
| Fecha: |
2010-04-19 2010-04-19 2010-04 |
| Publicador: | |
| Fuente: |
Ver documento |
| Tipo: | Working or Discussion Paper |
| Tema: |
Google Econometrics Forecast Comparison Keyword search US Unemployment Time Series Models Labor and Human Capital C22 C53 E27 E37 J60 J64 |
| Descripción: | We suggest the use of an Internet job-search indicator (the Google Index, GI) as the best leading indicator to predict the US unemployment rate. We perform a deep out-of-sample forecasting comparison analyzing many models that adopt both our preferred leading indicator (GI), the more standard initial claims or combinations of both. We find that models augmented with the GI outperform the traditional ones in predicting the monthly unemployment rate, even in most state-level forecasts and in comparison with the Survey of Professional Forecasters. |
| Idioma: | en |
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