| Título: | Time Series Modelling of the Contribution of Agriculture to GDP of Bangladesh |
| Autores: |
Anam, Sayedul Hossain, Mina Mahbub |
| Fecha: | 2012-04-01 |
| Publicador: | European Journal of Business and Management |
| Fuente: |
 |
| Tipo: |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article Peer-reviewed Article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
| Tema: | No aplica |
| Descripción: | The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a basic measure of a country's overall economic performance. Bangladesh is basically an agriculture country and therefore agriculture plays important role on GDP. To assist in the decision making process, this article proposes a time series model based on the contribution of Agriculture to GDP from fiscal year 1972 to 2010. In this paper, we have identified ARIMA (1, 2, 1) model as a reasonable model to forecast the yearly growth rate of GDP of Bangladesh. We also found that the GARCH (1, 1) model with a specified set of parameters is the best fit for our concerned data set. The proposed models help to identify the influence of the agricultural sector on GDP. Key words: GDP, Stationarity, Stochastic Model, Arima Model, Garch Model, AIC, AICc and BIC. |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
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